And What about the US Economy?

February 27 2019

Last week, the gold price closed near $1,325 per troy ounce, which is remarkable, since gold prices broke convincingly through the $1300-barrier after New Year’s Eve. Gold prices rallied even further by another three percent, topping $1340/oz, but slightly retreated last week. The motive? Everything appears to be awesome again on stock markets and Trump – insofar the rumors go – is nearing a tough fought trade agreement with the Chinese to resolve an impending all-out trade war. But this

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Olav Dirkmaat

Bloomberg: Auto Industry Heading for Troubles

February 18 2019

This week, I wanted to highlight the United States auto industry. In 2008, the real estate market was the main culprit: everyone was talking about the “subprime” mortgage-crisis. Subprime involves riskier borrowers with lower credit scores. Two years ago, I emphatically said that it this time around a recession will not revolve around subprime mortgages, but more than anything else subprime auto loans. And this is especially remarkable given the fact that in 2008 various large American

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Olav Dirkmaat

How Much Longer Can the U.S. Economy Hold?

January 10 2019

While everyone was distracted by the festivities of December, the yield curve in the United States went virtually flat. Stock market prices dropped further and this time around China appears unable to make up for economic slack elsewhere. In China, all signs are turning red: retail sales are

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Olav Dirkmaat

Corporations Were Never Before in Worse Shape Than Today – In Three Charts

November 21 2018

The stock market has been characterized by a decade-long complacency. The longest ever bull market in the history of the stock market has led to a curious situation in which bears are dismissed as gloomy alarmists, more or less ranked alongside wearers of tinfoil hats, astrologists and other types of conspiracy theorists. That might be the case for the moment, but that does not mean that we are wrong or that bears will be dismissed forever. By the time the current market will reach its violent end, hindsight bias – rationalizing any event after the fact – will assure that bulls await a similar fate. Whatever those short sellers from the stunning Oscar-nominated movie The Big Short knew, was something that more or less everybody knew, right? That these statements are far from the

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Olav Dirkmaat

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