Let us for a moment pretend that we have a crystal ball. I have made a list of ten predictions which I seriously consider for this new year. Some predictions are somewhat more daring than others, but every one of the scenarios have, according to my judgment, decent odds to actually become reality in 2018. I cannot give guarantees, of course, but I can only assure you that I put my money where my mouth is. In other words, I follow Nassim Taleb’s principle of “skin in the game.”... »
10 Predictions for 2018
January 16 2018
The Dollar as Financial Weapon?
January 10 2018
Since the demise of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, the world has become increasingly dependent on the US dollar. The US dollar continues to fulfill an important role as the world’s reserve currency and as a result the United States is basically obliged to provide the world with sufficient dollars.
In order to do so, the United States must import more goods every year than it exports. The difference is paid for in dollars; dollars that can then be used by other countries to import oil and... »
Top 10 Best Read Articles of 2017
January 3 2018
The holidays are over. We just had Christmas, quickly followed by New Year’s Eve. A good moment to reassess the year. For me personally, moreover, a useful moment for self-reflection. How much of the things we have written over the course of last year has turned out to be true? Can we, perhaps,... »
The Crypto Bubble Is a Symptom of Something Bigger
January 2 2018
Whenever there is an (artificial) economic expansion, driven by cheap credit and too low interest rates, it is sooner or later bound to go wrong. What we do not know in advance, however, is how things exactly go wrong. We only know that – at an artificial interest rate – malinvestments are made in certain sectors of the economy. In the 90s, we saw malinvestments in internet (startup) companies, domain names and the NASDAQ. In the run-up to the 2008 crisis the malinvestments were mainly concentrated in the housing market, house flipping and mortgage lenders. And this time? Where do the bubbles form?
We talked earlier about how – due to artificially low interest rates – stocks are yet again overvalued, especially when we look at technology companies. But also the recent... »