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Volatility Down, Stock Prices Up: The Signs of a Perfect Storm

July 4 2014

“Step aside,” tells Mark Spitznagel to his investors. He hardly expects anyone to listen. “It is the hardest thing to do right now,” he says, “and makes you look like a fool.” In times like these, in times of severe overvaluation, the ones warning investors are scorned. People who risk their money at the top of a bubble get even more excited by the promise of ea... »

Olav Dirkmaat

Leading Indicator Says Stock Market Crash Imminent

June 26 2014

The current stock market boom is a result of a reckless zero interest rate policy. Driven by loose credit, the Dow Jones Index reached new record highs earlier this year. Margin debt — the total amount of credit which is used to buy securities ‘on margin’ at a stock brokerage — also made record highs. It’s not the first time that both — margin debt and stock ... »

Olav Dirkmaat

Gold Bugs and Equity Cockroaches

June 20 2014

Investors in gold are commonly called gold bugs. Yet, gold bug is a derogatory term. As Marc Faber has put it nicely, a bug is an insect. The word “bug” or “insect” has a negative connotation to it. Calling gold investors gold bugs makes just as much sense as calling equity investors... »

Olav Dirkmaat

The Longer It Takes, the More Dramatic the Reversal

June 13 2014

A lot of gold investors are disgruntled. The emotional pain involved in seeing ones gold holdings decline in value while stock and bond markets are reaching a phase of full-fledged exuberance proves to be too much for many. At such extremes, however, a reversal will be hefty. As markets become stretched far beyond their fair limits, a reversal will be deeper and take a greater toll on a majority o... »

Olav Dirkmaat

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