Table of contents
Stay informed about everything you need to know about investing
The gold price is also very strong in 2026 from the starting blocks shot. That powerful price action the precious metal owes its name to the enormous geopolitical turmoil that has accelerated since the start of Trump's second term as President of the United States. We see interest rates rising, the US dollar sinking and investors and central banks alike are turning to gold as a safe haven.
We are not seeing these market movements for the first time. Also in April 2025 we saw something similar, during the peak of the Trump trade war. Yet this time, the movements feel more fundamental. It feels like we're watching a new world order emerge.
What we've seen since the start of Trump's second presidency is an acceleration in the repositioning of capital. We see a world that is becoming less clear. A world where the focus will be less on the United States. No abrupt break, no panic, but a gradual shift in the world order.
For example, where do we see that? Well, to the fact that the 10-year US government bond yield is rising, while at the same time the dollar weakens and gold rises. That combination is unusual. Normally, you would expect a stronger dollar rate when interest rates rise in the United States, and that should result in a lower gold price.
If interest rates on government bonds rise, those assets should in theory become a more attractive safe haven for investors. Now we don't see that and investors are jumping for gold despite higher interest rates on government bonds.
This movement tells us that investors are not primarily looking for returns, but for protection. The rise in US government bond yields therefore seems to be mainly the result of more uncertainty. As a result, investors are demanding a higher fee to park money in US dollars for a longer period of time.
For years, America was the natural center of the financial world. But Donald Trump's policy choices and financial actions, such as freezing Russian reserves in 2022, have made countries aware of the danger of dependence on the United States.
In such a world, investors choose to distribute their capital more “fairly” across the world, i.e. in different national currencies. But tangible assets are also gaining greater significance. Gold and industrial metals are not only economic commodities, but also strategic resources.
We see a repositioning in a world where certainties are declining. The following graph summarizes this situation well. We see 10-year yields rising and the US dollar weakening, while gold and commodities are gaining ground.
However, it is an exaggeration to say that this is looking at the end of the US dollar. The new reality is not associated with an abrupt crash or acute stress, but with a relatively gradual redistribution of capital. Investors are reducing their concentration in the United States and are opting for gold and other commodities more often.
Not out of panic, but in preparation for a world where geopolitical and economic certainty is somewhat less obvious.
How do we know that we're probably not looking at the end of the U.S. dollar? Well, because the interest rates in the US government bond market are not exploding. The 10-year yield, for example, is lower today than in 2023, and if investors actually saw the end of the dollar coming, no one would buy 10-year government bonds at a rate of just over 4 percent.
Then the market would probably demand 10, 20, or even 30 percent. So we are most likely not seeing the end of the US dollar, but rather the birth of a new reality. A world where the focus is slightly less on the United States, and it is important for investors to distribute capital better.
And in a world where uncertainty is increasing, the value of a politically and economy-independent asset such as gold is also increasing. Exactly that is what we see. That's why investors buy gold, and not because of the conviction that the U.S. dollar will fall today or tomorrow.
Gold got off to a strong start in 2026 due to increasing geopolitical uncertainty since Trump's second term, causing investors and central banks to choose gold as a safe haven again. The combination of a weaker dollar, rising interest rates and gold that is nevertheless rising points to a gradual shift towards a new world order where protection is becoming more important than returns.
The latest updates, analysis and insights from precious metals and financial markets
Socials
