Its the Weather, Silly: Everything about the Abysmal GDP-report & the Failure of QE

May 2 2014

As manic-depressive Mr Market appears to focus wholly on good news only to confirm its bias that the U.S. (and world) economy is indeed recovering, the news that U.S. GDP numbers over the first quarter of this year were absolutely horrendous was silently ignored. More shockingly, if it wasn’t for Obamacare, GDP would have actually declined 1% year-to-year in the first quarter. Abysmal, in... »

Olav Dirkmaat

Amazon: Don't Play the Losers' Game

April 25 2014

Recently, I’ve come across a piece about Amazon written by a prize-winning asset manager. After a painstaking sales pitch, she cites analysts’ expectations and adds that “Amazon will triple its earnings in 2014 and then double them again in 2015”. “Investors should not look at the insanely high price / earnings ratio”, she assures readers. When I saw the disclai... »

Olav Dirkmaat

Deflation: Really?

April 17 2014

There is a public outcry over lower inflation. Many pundits fear deflation, as if it was the devil himself. IMF’s Christine Lagarde is one of many alarmists that warn for a deflationary spiral, calling it the deflation “ogre”. Lagarde has been very outspoken about the dangers of falling... »

Olav Dirkmaat

Why the Gold / Silver Ratio is Next to Useless

April 11 2014

Many opt for silver instead of gold due to the “magical” gold / silver ratio (the gold / silver ratio is calculated by dividing the price of gold by the price of silver). They then point at the “historical” 16:1 ratio as a “fair estimate” of the mean ratio, and predict a “regression to the mean” of silver against gold. As the gold / silver ratio curr... »

Olav Dirkmaat

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