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Jokes abound about economists, but one is particularly relevant to our article of today. A retired economics professor is back at the university where he studied and used to teach for his 50-year class reunion. He asks if he could see the current economics exam. After a little while, he receives the most recent version of the economics exam from a faculty member. He scans carefully through the exam, looks up somewhat surprised, and utters: “But this is exactly
the same exam that I wrote almost 50 years ago!” “Yes,” responds the faculty member, “the exam is exactly the same, but all the answers are different!”

The Dominant Doctrine at the Fed

The “Output Gap”

The current estimated output gap. Source: ST LOUIS FED

The “Neutral” or “Natural” Interest Rate

The Taylor Rule

SOURCE: UFM MARKET TRENDS, BLOOMBERG

The Fed Is Groping in the Dark

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