The U.S. midterm elections are done. The Democrats gained a majority in the House of Representatives, whereas the Republicans gained a majority in the Senate. This implies that Trump will have more trouble in introducing new legislation (another tax hike will be close to impossible, for instance), but will probably make it to the end of his term. Moreover, Trump can quite easily propose new Federal Reserve board members and Supreme Court judges; whereas Trump can propose candidates to fill vacant positions, they must later be confirmed by the (Republican-colored) Senate. It remains to be seen how many trade tariffs Trump can justify without passing them through Congress, through executive orders, but he might have some discretional power to impose, especially upon China, additional tariffs. This summarizes roughly the political outlook for the coming two years, but this week the rapid decline in oil prices are perhaps more notable. Oil prices have collapsed to approximately twenty percent below its recent highs and are now in a bear market. What are oil prices signaling?

Oil Prices Fall: Oil Demand Is Waning?


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