Market Update

Dear reader, welcome to the latest GoldRepublic newsletter! In just five minutes, we will fully inform you of current precious metal prices and the most relevant news that affects your investment in precious metals. Don't miss out on these valuable insights!

1. US and Israel attack Iran — conflict escalates rapidly

The Middle East is on fire again. Waves of Israeli warplanes, with U.S. support in intelligence and logistics, carried out attacks on Iranian air defenses, missile installations, and military bases around Tehran. According to Israel, the operation is intended to neutralize the nuclear threat from Iran and the network of regional militias.

Iran responded almost immediately with a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones towards Israel. In the following days, it expanded conflict continues to express itself. Missiles were also fired towards countries with US bases, including Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman. President Trump said that the operation “can take as long as necessary” and did not completely rule out the deployment of US troops.

‍2. Strait of Hormuz under pressure — oil prices skyrocket

‍The escalation immediately caused panic in energy markets. The tension around the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passageway where around a fifth of the world's oil trade passes, caused shipping traffic to virtually stop.

Within four days, the oil price rose by around 15%. Brent oil reached nearly 85 dollars a barrel, the highest level since mid-2024. Asian economies such as China, India and Japan are particularly vulnerable because much of their energy imports go through this route.

China called on all parties to keep the doorway open, while countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates try to mediate behind the scenes to achieve a rapid de-escalation.

3. Energy prices are also rising in the Netherlands

‍The consequences are now also visible in Europe. Rising gas prices have already got Dutch energy suppliers thinking. Companies such as Vattenfall and Eneco are temporarily limiting the supply of fixed energy contracts due to the high uncertainty about future prices.

Households without a permanent contract are therefore directly exposed to higher rates. At the same time, the conflict once again underlines how dependent Europe remains on energy from geopolitically unstable regions.

4. Stocks and bonds under pressure due to inflation fears

The geopolitical shock also affects the financial markets. Both stocks and bonds were under pressure as the conflict escalated. Higher energy prices increase the chance of a new wave of inflation.

Investors therefore started to take into account again interest rate hikes. In Europe, a chance of more than 60% is now being priced in that the ECB will have to raise interest rates again later this year. Just a few days ago, markets were actually counting on a rate cut.

For Europe, the risk is extra high because the continent is almost entirely dependent on imported energy. The situation is increasingly reminiscent of 2022, when the war in Ukraine caused a prolonged energy and inflation shock.

5. Gold moves erratically — inflation may rise again

As usual, the gold price reacted during periods of stress: first up, then down again. After a four-day rally, gold fell more than 4%, partly due to the rising dollar and the expectation that central banks will have to keep interest rates high for longer.

We see that pattern more often. Initially, gold rises in the face of geopolitical tensions, but when markets come under real pressure and liquidity dries up, all asset classes are often sold. This is usually followed by another recovery.

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In the coming weeks, it will become particularly clear whether this conflict remains a temporary geopolitical shock or marks the start of a new energy and inflation cycle.